Steve Carpenter is an ecologist who uses large-scale long-term experiments and models to understand abrupt changes in nature. He is Director of the Center for Limnology and Stephen Alfred Forbes Professor of Zoology at UW-Madison.
Carpenter, S.R., D. Ludwig and W.A. Brock. 1999. Management of eutrophication for lakes subject to potentially irreversible change. Ecological Applications 9: 751-771.
Havlicek, T. and S.R. Carpenter. 2001. Pelagic species size distributions in lakes: Are they discontinuous? Limnology and Oceanography 46: 1021-1033.
Scheffer, M., S. R. Carpenter, J. Foley, C. Folke and B. Walker. 2001. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413: 591-596.
Carpenter, S.R. 2003. Regime Shifts in Lake Ecosystems: Pattern and Variation. Volume 15 in the Excellence in Ecology Series, Ecology Institute, Oldendorf/Luhe, Germany.
Genkai-Kato, M. and S.R. Carpenter. 2005. Eutrophication due to phosphorus recycling in relation to lake morphometry, temperature and macrophytes. Ecology 86: 210-219.
Carpenter, S.R. and W.A. Brock. 2006. Rising variance: A leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecology Letters 9: 311-318.
Carpenter, S.R., W.A. Brock, J.J. Cole, J.F. Kitchell and M.L. Pace. 2008. Leading indicators of trophic cascades. Ecology Letters 11: 128-138.
Biggs, R., S.R. Carpenter and W.A. Brock. 2009. Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106(3): 826-831. Online at: www.pnas.org_cgi_doi_10.1073_pnas.0811729106
Scheffer, M., J. Bascompte, W.A. Brock, V. Brovkin, S.R. Carpenter, V. Dakos, H. Held, E.H. Van Nes, M. Rietkerk and G. Sugihara. 2009. Early warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461: 53-59.
Carpenter, S. R, and W. A Brock. 2010. Early warnings of regime shifts in spatial dynamics using the discrete Fourier transform. Ecosphere 1:art10. [doi:10.1890/ES10-00016.1]
Carpenter, S.R., J.J. Cole, M.L. Pace, R.D. Batt, W.A. Brock, T. Cline, J. Coloso, J.R. Hodgson, J.F. Kitchell, D.A. Seekell, L. Smith and B. Weidel. 2011. Early warnings of regime shifts: A whole-ecosystem experiment. Science 332: 1079-1082.
Carpenter, S.R. and W.A. Brock. 2011. Early warnings of unknown nonlinear shifts: a nonparametric approach. Ecology 92: 2196-2201.
Dakos, V., S. R. Carpenter, W. A. Brock, A. M. Ellison, V. Guttal, A. R. Ives, S. Kéfi, V. Livina, D. A. Seekell, E. H. van Nes, and M. Scheffer. 2012. Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data. PLoS ONE 7:e41010.
Hansen, G.J.A., A.R. Ives, M.J. Vander Zanden and S.R. Carpenter. 2013. Are rapid transitions between dominance by invasive and native species a result of alternate stable states, and does it matter? Ecology 94: 2207-2219.
Carpenter, S.R., W.A. Brock, J.J. Cole and M.L. Pace. 2013. A new approach for rapid detection of nearby thresholds in ecosystem time series. Oikos 123: 290-297. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2013.00539.x
Kéfi, S., V. Guttal, W. A. Brock, S. R. Carpenter, A. M. Ellison, V. N. Livina, D. A. Seekell, M. Scheffer, E. H. van Nes, and V. Dakos. 2014. Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns. PLoS ONE 9:e92097
Cline, T.J., D. A. Seekell, S. R. Carpenter, M. L. Pace, J. R. Hodgson, J. F. Kitchell, and B. C. Weidel 2014. Early warnings of regime shifts: evaluation of spatial indicators from a whole-ecosystem experiment. Ecosphere 5:art102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES13-00398.1
Scheffer, M., S. R. Carpenter, V. Dakos and E. van Nes. 2015. Generic indicators of ecological resilience. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics 46: 145-167.
Carpenter, S.R., W.A. Brock, C. Folke, E. van Nes and M. Scheffer. 2015. Allowing variance may enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112:14384-14389. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1511804112
Pace, M.L., R.D. Batt, C.D. Buelo, S.R. Carpenter, J.J. Cole, J.T. Kurzweil and G.M. Wilkinson. 2017. Reversal of a cyanobacterial bloom in response to early warnings. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114(2):352-357. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1612424114
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