Foundational ACES Publications

Concepts and theory

Carpenter, S.R., W.A. Brock, C. Folke, E. van Nes and M. Scheffer. 2015. Allowing variance may enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112:14384-14389.

Scheffer, M., S. Carpenter, V. Dakos and E. van Nes. 2015. Generic indicators of ecological resilience. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics 46: 145-167.

Kéfi, S., V. Guttal, W. A. Brock, S. R. Carpenter, A. M. Ellison, V. N. Livina, D. A. Seekell, M. Scheffer, E. H. van Nes, and V. Dakos. 2014. Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns. PLoS ONE 9:e92097

Dakos, V., S. R. Carpenter, W. A. Brock, A. M. Ellison, V. Guttal, A. R. Ives, S. Kéfi, V. Livina, D. A. Seekell, E. H. van Nes, and M. Scheffer. 2012. Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data. PLoS ONE 7:e41010.

Ives, A. R., and V. Dakos. 2012. Detecting dynamical changes in nonlinear time series using locally linear state-space models. Ecosphere 3:art58.

Scheffer, M., J. Bascompte, W.A. Brock, V. Brovkin, S.R. Carpenter, V. Dakos, H. Held, E.H. Van Nes, M. Rietkerk and G. Sugihara. 2009. Early warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461: 53-59.

Ives, A. R., and S. R. Carpenter. 2007. Stability and diversity of ecosystems. Science 317: 58-62.

Carpenter, S.R. and W.A. Brock.  2006.  Rising variance:  A leading indicator of ecological transition.  Ecology Letters 9: 311-318.

Scheffer, M., S. Carpenter, J. Foley, C. Folke and B. Walker.  2001.  Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems.  Nature 413:  591-596.


Freshwater lakes

Pace, M.L., R.D. Batt, C.D. Buelo, S.R. Carpenter, J.J. Cole, J.T. Kurzweil and G.M. Wilkinson. 2017. Reversal of a cyanobacterial bloom in response to early warnings. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114(2):352-357.

Cline, T.J., D. A. Seekell, S. R. Carpenter, M. L. Pace, J. R. Hodgson, J. F. Kitchell, and B. C. Weidel 2014. Early warnings of regime shifts: evaluation of spatial indicators from a whole-ecosystem experiment. Ecosphere 5:art102.

Carpenter, S.R., W.A. Brock, J.J. Cole and M.L. Pace. 2013. A new approach for rapid detection of nearby thresholds in ecosystem time series. Oikos 123: 290-297.

Hansen, G.J.A., A.R. Ives, M.J. Vander Zanden and S.R. Carpenter. 2013. Are rapid transitions between dominance by invasive and native species a result of alternate stable states, and does it matter? Ecology 94: 2207-2219.

Carpenter, S.R. and W.A. Brock. 2011. Early warnings of unknown nonlinear shifts: a nonparametric approach. Ecology 92: 2196-2201.

Carpenter, S.R., J.J. Cole, M.L. Pace, R.D. Batt, W.A. Brock, T. Cline, J. Coloso, J.R. Hodgson, J.F. Kitchell, D.A. Seekell, L. Smith and B. Weidel. 2011. Early warnings of regime shifts: A whole-ecosystem experiment. Science 332: 1079-1082.

Schooler, S. S., B. Salau, M. H. Julien, and A. R. Ives. 2011. Alternative stable states explain unpredictable biological control of salvinia in Kakadu. Nature 470:86-89.

Carpenter, S. R, and W. A Brock. 2010. Early warnings of regime shifts in spatial dynamics using the discrete Fourier transform. Ecosphere 1:art10.

Biggs, R., S.R. Carpenter and W.A. Brock. 2009. Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106(3): 826-831.

Carpenter, S.R., W.A. Brock, J.J. Cole, J.F. Kitchell and M.L. Pace. 2008. Leading indicators of trophic cascades. Ecology Letters 11: 128-138.

Ives, A. R., A. Einarsson, V. A. A. Jansen, and A. Gardarsson. 2008. High-amplitude fluctuations and alternative dynamical states of midges in Lake Myvatn. Nature 452:84-87.

Genkai-Kato, M. and S.R. Carpenter.  2005.  Eutrophication due to phosphorus recycling in relation to lake morphometry, temperature and macrophytes.  Ecology 86:  210-219.

Carpenter, S.R.  2003.  Regime Shifts in Lake Ecosystems:  Pattern and Variation.  Volume 15 in the Excellence in Ecology Series, Ecology Institute, Oldendorf/Luhe, Germany.

Havlicek, T. and S.R. Carpenter.  2001.  Pelagic species size distributions in lakes:  Are they discontinuous?  Limnology and Oceanography 46:  1021-1033.

Carpenter, S.R., D. Ludwig and W.A. Brock.  1999.  Management of eutrophication for lakes subject to potentially irreversible change.  Ecological Applications 9:  751-771.


Agricultural systems

Zipper, S.C., J. Qiu, and C.J. Kucharik. 2016.  Drought effects on US maize and soybean production: Spatiotemporal patterns and historical changes.  Environmental Research Letters 11: 094021.

Licker, R., C.J. Kucharik, T. Doré, M.J. Lindeman, and D. Makowski. 2013. Climatic controls of winter wheat yields in Picardy, France and Rostov, Russia: 1973-2010.  Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 176: 25-37.

Sacks, W.J. and C.J. Kucharik. 2011.  Trends in crop management and phenology in the U.S. Corn Belt, and impacts on yields, evapotranspiration, and energy balance. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151: 882-894.

Licker, R., M. Johnston, Foley, J.A., C. Barford, C., Kucharik, C.J., Monfreda, C. and N. Ramankutty. 2010. Mind the Gap: how do climate and agricultural management explain the ‘yield gap’ of croplands around the world? Global Ecology and Biogeography 18: 769-782.

Kucharik, C.J. 2008. Contribution of planting date trends to increased maize yields in the central United States.  Agronomy Journal 100: 328-336.

Kucharik, C.J. and S.P. Serbin. 2008. Impacts of recent climate change on Wisconsin corn and soybean yield trends. Environmental Research Letters 3: 034003.

Kucharik, C.J. 2006. A multidecadal trend of earlier corn planting in the central U.S. Agronomy Journal 98: 1544-1550.

Kucharik, C.J. and N. Ramankutty. 2005. Trends and Variability in U.S. Corn Yields Over the 20th Century. Earth Interactions 9: 1-29.


Eastern deciduous forests

Ordonez, A., Williams, J. W. and Svenning, J. C. 2016. Mapping climatic mechanisms likely to favour the emergence of novel communities. Nature Climate Change 6:1104-1109.

Ordonez, A. and Williams, J. W. 2013. Climatic and biotic velocities for woody taxa distributions over the last 16,000 years in eastern North America. Ecology Letters 16: 773-781.

Nogues-Bravo, D. et al. 2016. Late-Quaternary records forecast amplified plant turnover to climate change. Nature Climate Change 6: 1115-1119.

Wang, Y. et al. 2015. Pronounced variations in Fagus grandifolia abundances in the Great Lakes region during the Holocene. The Holocene 26: 578-591.

Williams, J. W., Shuman, B. and Bartlein, P. J. 2009. Rapid responses of the Midwestern prairie-forest ecotone to early Holocene aridity. Global and Planetary Change 66: 195-207.

Williams, J. W., Blois, J. L. and Shuman, B. N. 2011. Extrinsic and intrinsic forcing of abrupt ecological change: Case studies from the late Quaternary. J. Ecol. 99: 664-677.

Williams, J. W. and Burke, K. (in press) Past abrupt changes in climate and terrestrial ecosystems. in Climate Change and Biodiversity. eds T. Lovejoy & L. Hannah.

Williams, J. W., Shuman, B., Bartlein, P. J., Diffenbaugh, N. S. and Webb, T., III. 2010. Rapid, time-transgressive, and variable responses to early-Holocene midcontinental drying in North America. Geology 38: 135-138.

Williams, J. W. and Jackson, S. T. 2007. Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5: 475-482.


Subalpine conifer forests

Westerling, A. L., T. J. Brown, T. Schoennagel, T. W. Swetnam, M. G. Turner, and T. T. Veblen. 2016. Climate and wildfire in western U.S. forests. Pages 43-55 In: A. Sample, P. Bixler and C. Miller, eds.  Forest conservation in the Anthropocene. University Press of Colorado, Boulder, CO.

Seidl, R., D. C. Donato, K. A Raffa, and M. G. Turner. 2016. Spatial variability in tree regeneration after wildfire delays and dampens future bark beetle outbreaks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113:13075-13080.

*Johnstone, J. F., C. D. Allen, J. F. Franklin, L. E. Frelich, B. J. Harvey, P. E. Higuera, M. C. Mack, R. K. Meentemeyer, M. R. Metz, G. L. W. Perry, T. Schoennagel, and *M. G. Turner. 2016. Changing disturbance regimes, climate warming and forest resilience. (*Johnstone and Turner co-led). Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 14:369-378.

Harvey, B. J., D. C. Donato and M. G. Turner. 2016. Burn me twice, shame on who? Interactions between successive forest fires across a temperate mountain region. Ecology 97:2272-2282

Harvey, B. J., D. C. Donato and M. G. Turner. 2016. High and dry: Postfire drought and large stand-replacing burn patches reduce postfire tree regeneration in subalpine forests. Global Ecology and Biogeography 25:655-669.

Donato, D. C., B. J. Harvey, and M. G. Turner. 2016. Regeneration of lower-montane forests a quarter-century after the 1988 Yellowstone Fires: a fire-catalyzed shift in lower treelines? Ecosphere 7(8) Article e01410.

Turner, M. G., D. C. Donato, W. D. Hansen, B. J. Harvey, W. H. Romme, and A. L. Westerling. 2016. Climate change and novel disturbance regimes in national park landscapes. Pages 77-101 In: S. R. Beissinger, D. D. Ackerly, H. Doremus, and G. Machlis, editors. Science, conservation, and national parks. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.

Turner, M. G., D. C. Donato and W. H. Romme. 2013. Consequences of spatial heterogeneity for ecosystem services in changing forest landscapes: priorities for future research. Landscape Ecology 28:1081-1097.

Stephens, S. L., J. K. Agee, P. Z. Fulé, M. P. North, W. H. Romme, T. W. Swetnam, and M. G. Turner. 2013. Managing forests and fire in changing climates. Science 342:41-42.

Kashian, D. M., W. H. Romme, D. B. Tinker, M. G. Turner and M. G. Ryan. 2013. Post-fire changes in forest carbon storage over a 300-year chronosequence of Pinus contorta-dominated forests. Ecological Monographs 83:49-66.

Westerling, A. L., M. G. Turner, E. A. H. Smithwick, W. H. Romme and M. G. Ryan. 2011. Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108:13165-13170.

Turner, M. G. 2010. Disturbance and landscape dynamics in a changing world. Ecology 91:2833-2849.

Smithwick, E. A. H., M. G. Ryan, D. M. Kashian, W. H. Romme, D. B. Tinker and M. G. Turner. 2009. Modeling the effects of fire and climate change on carbon and nitrogen storage in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) stands. Global Change Biology 15:535-548.

Raffa, K. F., B. H. Aukema, B. J. Bentz, A. L. Carroll, J. A. Hicke, M. G. Turner and W. H. Romme. 2008. Cross-scale drivers of natural disturbances prone to anthropogenic amplification: the dynamics of bark beetle eruptions. BioScience 58:501-517.